n our private lives, the first few months of 2021 were much the same as 2020 – unfortunately. Britain, and indeed the world, suffered more COVID cases, more fatalities and, once again, tighter restrictions. For investors, though, it was a different story. Despite a global economy frozen in motion and the deepest recession ever recorded,…
Following a strong first quarter for equity investors worldwide, the second quarter is off to a good start as well, with most global stock markets already up by a few percentage points. While the sense that stock markets are potentially getting ahead of themselves is nothing new, the renewed surge of large-cap US tech stocks…
Markets are excited, and expectant, for the global economic recovery later this year. As noted here many times, this brings changes in the prevailing investment parameters – the much-discussed cyclical rotation. Typically, emerging markets (EMs) do well in this environment: strong growth fuels demand for their products and the commodities they export, while financial conditions…
Springtime appears to be showering us with financial scandals. Just two weeks ago, we wrote about the collapse of supply-chain financer Greensill, the potential fallout, and what it could do to the reputation of the high-profile investors involved. This week, the financial press stumbled on an even bigger calamity, which could prove far more disruptive…
It may be April Fools’ Day, but ignore the ill-fated corporate PR stunts (Voltswagen!). The fact is that the first quarter of 2021 has brought genuine good news for UK-based investors with exposure to global stock markets. Equity markets have generally resumed an upward trajectory, while low risk assets, especially long maturity bonds, have sustained…
As we enter spring, the world thankfully looks a little brighter. The vaccine rollout is well underway in the UK and US, and is having palpable effects on the outlook for the second half of this year – despite disruptions on the continent and virus mutation scare stories. For investors, despite the caveats, there has…
Positive stories about Europe are thin on the ground at the moment – notwithstanding that core European equity markets have broadly outperformed their global peers, including the US, so far this year. With a sluggish vaccine rollout and a renewed rapid spread of infections across the continent, restrictions look set to remain in place for…
It has been another week of markets feeling on edge, without going anywhere. Markets seem to have caught a bit of worry about the passage of growth, oddly just as the wider populace gets more confident and the recent headwind of rising bond yields abated. Perhaps we should attribute the bubbling up of political tensions…
The collapse of supply-chain financer Greensill Capital has all the hallmarks of a classic business scandal. Once hailed as a shining example of the UK’s fintech start-up potential, Greensill attracted attention from international giants such as Credit Suisse, hedge fund manager GAM and private equity house Softbank, and even managed to snag former Prime Minister…
Interest rates are on hold for years to come, according to the latest announcement from the US Federal Reserve (Fed). After its two-day meeting, monetary policymakers resolved to keep interest rates close to zero, and signalled more of the same until at least 2024. This comes despite upgrades to the Fed’s own economic forecasts, which…