Desperate times call for desperate measures. The global economy has been ravaged by the pandemic, struggling under the cycle of lockdowns and rising virus fatalities for a year now. The forced shutdown of entire business sectors has led to the deepest global recession on record – with increasing numbers of affected businesses closing their shutters…
Exactly one year ago, on 19 February 2020, stock markets hit their pre-pandemic high. Over the five weeks that followed, markets plunged in the most extreme global market crash ever known, as the world accepted that COVID-19 was a threat of unprecedented dimensions. Looking back, it seems impossible anyone could have even broadly predicted what…
Even though economic prospects appear positive, for capital markets, it’s always a bit more complicated. For investors, the main anxiety is that the economic positivity, based on vaccination hopes and fiscal support, is putting equities in a more precarious position. No one can deny that, on current price-to-earnings ratios, stocks look expensive relative to history.…
With vaccines being rolled out across the world, and substantial monetary and fiscal support for the foreseeable future, economic activity in the second half of this year is all but certain to be stronger than 2020. But much of this optimism has already been priced in. Just as last year saw the worst global recession…
‘Worst recession in 300 years’ was how UK media framed Friday’s release of UK GDP growth data for the last quarter of 2020. They were also quick to point out that the -9.9% full-year number was far worse than any other major industrialised nation around the world. What they only reported far further down in…
The dollar has been on a good run lately. Over the last month, its value against the other main currencies has steadily risen. The move has been particularly pronounced against the euro, which fetched $1.23 in currency trading at the beginning of the year, but has since fallen to $1.20. Moves have been less pronounced…
As the British government and media are keen to point out, the UK is one of the world leaders in vaccine numbers. After trumpeting the speedy approval of the BioNTech/Pfizer, Oxford/Astra Zeneca and Moderna vaccines, the government has administered jabs to more than 10 million Britons. At the time of writing, 16 shots have been…
After January’s misbehaviour – everything from riotous insurrection at the US Capitol to rebellious share speculation – February began with a more predictable return to normality. The share price of now internationally famous US video game store GameStop has fallen by around 87% ($469 last week to $60 at time of writing). Likewise, frictions within…
The labour market will be at the heart of a post-pandemic economic recovery. We are in the middle of Britain’s sharpest recession in hundreds of years, but this is not any normal downturn. The virus and repeated lockdowns have reduced demand and, once restrictions are substantially eased, activity will certainly rebound. But the induced recession…
As widely reported in the media, this week in equity markets has been a wild ride through the depths of the internet. GameStop, a consumer electronics store that looked destined to be another retail casualty, saw its stock price propelled to unthinkable heights over the last five days, after retail traders turned the company into…